Well, Derby Preview Day (as in Louisiana Derby) is looking much better than Road to the Derby (Louisiana Derby, again) Kickoff Day last month at Fair Grounds. If you recall, there was very unfortunately timed late-morning rain Jan. 19 that caused early turf races to be moved to dirt not long before first post and turned the racing surface muddy to start the day, drying out thereafter. Also, the temperature dropped about 20 degrees during the afternoon and the wind started howling from the n'west, blowing a steady 35 mph with stronger gusts into the horses' faces down the backstretch (an important notation when looking at fractional times later on the Jan. 19 card). 

Today, 70ish, light wind, humid, no rain in forecast. Fast and firm. Turf rail at zero, and that created a noteworthy trend on the Thurs & Fri cards, with the fresh ground near the rail appearing to confer a significant advantage. Nothing the last two days has closed wide with any real success, and anything with inside turf speed has to be given a positive bump today until we get information to the contrary. 

Of the three pick fours on the card, the all-stakes one (races 9-12) unfortunately holds the least appeal. In race 9, the G3 Mineshaft (#1, #12, #13 are scratched), the shorter prices look vulnerable but the longer prices look incapable. I'm against the two comebacking 4-year-olds, Lone Sailor (#5) and Flameaway (#9) but most likely winners Harlan Punch (#2) and Silver Dust (#4) are neither especially exciting prospects nor much of a price. 

Follow that up with Synchrony (#9) being a very likely winner of the FG Handicap, race 10, as a short price, and the sequence starts off flat. Sure, the FG 'Cap is big field of grass horses, but I'd rather play the race vertically than just pray Synchrony gets in trouble of the sort that cost him victory last time out.

Now, maybe you see the Rachel Alexandra (R11) as more open than I. First, reminder that Chasing Yesterday (#10) was an early scratch; Bell's the One (#7) also is out. But for me, with Positive Spirit (#4) the most likely winner (and likely favorite), followed by Needs Supervision (#9) and Oxy Lady (#6), there's little value to be found here. Sure, I'm against Serengeti Empress (#3) but so is everyone else.

And finally, the featured G2 Risen Star, which has no scratches beyond the one we've known for nearly a week, Kingly (#13), which allows also-eligible Gun It (#15) to draw in, albeit with post 14. I tried to beat him with Plus Que Parfait (#1), who I'll bet at the right price to win and in exactas and trifectas, but War of Will (#14) is a formidable favorite here at a shorter price than his morning line, that despite the wide draw. It's easier for me to see one of the bombs falling into place or show than actually winning this race, so I won't go stabbing at pick four glory I don't necessarily see falling from the sky.

The first two pick fours, however, starting in races 1 and 4, I'll play. 

R1: A-11 B-3,8,10 C-2,6,7,9
R2: A-5 B-1,6
R3: A-5,9 B -8
R4: A-1,2 B-3,6

R4: A-1,2 B-3,6
R5: A-6 B-5,7,8
R6: A-3,7 B-9,10
R7: A-2,9 B-10,12 C-4,11

You can see from the R4 horses I'm definitely trying to beat favored Beau Recall (#8). She usually rallies outside and my guess is she ends up on the wrong part of the track. Also could take a step back today. 

One final note: Tigers Rule (#1) in R8 has had so much bad luck (including catching wet turf he doesn't handle). Most recent misfortune: turf clod hit him in the eye mid-race last time. He'll run in a bubble to protect that eye today (like Stacelita, multiple G1 turf winner, did for a time). Just something to consider.