Thursday's twilight card (first post at 3:05 ET) features the Grade 3 Wonder Again (Race 3), the Grade 3 Intercontinental (Race 8) and the $150k Astoria, for 2yo fillies (Race 7).
The Wonder Again is carded early due to the short field and the presence of an overwhelming favorite in Newspaperofrecord. Perhaps she will lose her second straight race and really open up the payoff potential in the early card multi's, but I can't bet the race that way. She looks too good for these horses, though it would be nice to see her settle a little better in the early part of this race. She may have been a short horse in the Edgewood, but getting headstrong as she did early in that race certainly did her no favors.
The Astoria, as is nearly required now in juvenile stakes, is just an entry-level allowance with a $150k purse. Ho hum. Scratch #5 Dixie Mo and #6 Sneaky Surprise.
I did like Perfect Alibi's debut win for Mark Casse and Tracy Farmer last month at Churchill. She was out-paced a bit early in that race, but she managed to keep things within range and she finished that race off properly despite being a bit awkward with her lead change in midstretch.
I will certainly use the two outside horses, as well. Twirling Owen had easy speed in her career debut before going on to win in a jog, and she was dueling the pace in the Kentucky Juvenile last time, before tiring in a race that fell apart late. Ms Headly, like Perfect Alibi, did not make the lead in her debut win for Wesley Ward, but she traveled comfortably in a tracking/chasing trip and overpowered that leader with little trouble in the stretch.
The most interesting horse in the race is Maryanorginger, a first time starter drawn to the rail for Jeremiah Englehart.
She has been drawing positive reviews in the DRF Clocker Report and Englehart is quickly becoming one of the best debut trainers on the grounds. I'm taking her chances seriously in this race.
The Intercontinental may well go beyond ML favorite Significant Form - one of three in the race for Chad Brown - but she is the horse I'm going to lean on. It is quite surprising to look at her form and see only two wins on her card after eight starts (she was disqualified from another), but I do believe that she is better than that record would indicate.
After winning her 2018 debut impressively last April she was pointed to the major 3yo filly turf races in the summer, the Wonder Again and the Belmont Oaks. She didn't run poorly in either of those races, but it did seem that the distances - nine and ten furlongs, respectively - might have simply been too far for her. I like her cutting back to a shorter trip and think she is dirtied up a bit.
The main backups for me are Broadway Run - a versatile filly with upside who came back with a solid run in her seasonal debut - and one of Chad's other runners, Zonza.
Zonza didn't run that well in her stateside debut at Keeneland but that was a strongly run race that was wired by the streaking Limari (93 Beyer winning her fourth straight) and Zonza didn't appear to appreciate the yielding ground that day. She is eligible to do a lot better back over firm turf and cutting back in distance.
Other Spots:
Race 1: #2 Pillar Mountain
Kulin Rock is 9:5 on the morning line and the horse to beat, but I'm betting against him with Pillar Mountain. He ran well while making a couple of moves over this distance at Saratoga last August, before going to the sidelines, and I thought that first race back last month was a perfect prep.
Race 5: #9 Keepme in Thegame
Half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning turfer New Money Honey's Keeneland debut was a useful effort while putting in a game late run behind a front-running winner. As a bigger price, I would also use #12 Savvy Cairo. She drew poorly on the far outside but she is bred for turf and is eligible to improve quickly for a top trainer.
Race 9: #8 Plebe
Made two starts as a 2yo and showed some ability in both. Think there is a chance he might have won his second start at Saratoga but he kept lugging in the stretch and could not be ridden by Jose Lezcano, who had his hands full just trying to keep him straight. He returns as a new gelding for his 3yo debut.